Japan’s birth rate has plummeted to an all-time low, with deaths now outnumbering births by more than double, threatening the very functioning of Japanese society.
Key Takeaways
- Japan recorded only 720,988 births in 2024, a 5% decrease from 2023 and the lowest since records began in 1899.
- Deaths in Japan (1.62 million) more than doubled births, resulting in a population decline of nearly 900,000 people.
- Despite government initiatives, Japan’s demographic crisis has accelerated, reaching population decline levels 15 years ahead of forecasts.
- Japan’s population is projected to shrink by 30% to 87 million by 2070, with 40% being elderly citizens.
- In contrast, neighboring South Korea has shown a slight uptick in births for the first time in nine years.
Japan’s Demographic Freefall Accelerating
The demographic crisis in Japan has reached alarming new depths, with births falling for the ninth consecutive year to a record low of 720,988 in 2024. This represents a 5% decrease from the previous year and marks the lowest figure since recordkeeping began in 1899. Most concerning for Japanese officials, this demographic collapse is occurring at a pace that forecasters didn’t expect to see for another 15 years. The stark reality is that Japan’s population decreased by 0.46% to 123.54 million, as deaths massively outpaced births by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio.
Government officials have admitted their failure to stem the demographic decline despite years of policies aimed at encouraging family formation. Japan’s birth rate has fallen dramatically since peaking at 2.1 million births in 1973. This collapse comes despite a surprising 2.2% increase in marriages in 2024, suggesting that even when young Japanese do marry, they’re increasingly choosing to remain childless amid economic uncertainty and cultural shifts.
🚨🇯🇵JAPAN’S BIRTHS PLUNGE TO RECORD LOW
Japan’s baby count crashed to a new low of 720,988 in 2024, down 5% from last year—marking 9 straight years of decline.
With 1.62 million deaths, that’s 2 gone for every newborn, a population shrinking and aging fast.
Ex-PM Fumio… https://t.co/ZOVNzqGAU3 pic.twitter.com/ljOEfd7MP2
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 27, 2025
Economic Pressures and Cultural Factors Driving Birth Decline
Young Japanese citizens face multiple disincentives to family formation, including a stagnant economy, prohibitively high living costs, especially in urban centers, and rigid corporate cultures incompatible with raising children. The high cost of education alone can discourage family planning, as parents recognize the substantial financial burden of preparing children for Japan’s competitive academic environment. These economic realities have combined with changing lifestyle preferences to create a perfect storm for population decline.
“Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said tackling the population crisis is among his top priorities.” – Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
While Prime Minister Ishiba has declared addressing the crisis a top priority, previous government initiatives have clearly fallen short. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government attempted to reverse the trend through expanded childcare facilities, housing subsidies, and even experimenting with a four-day workweek for Tokyo Metropolitan Government employees. Yet these measures have failed to move the needle on birth rates, suggesting more fundamental economic and social reforms may be necessary.
Long-term Consequences for Japanese Society
The demographic implosion portends severe consequences for Japan’s future. Projections indicate the population will shrink approximately 30% to 87 million by 2070, with an astonishing 40% of citizens being 65 or older. This inverted demographic pyramid threatens to collapse Japan’s pension system, healthcare infrastructure, and workforce productivity. With each working-age citizen supporting more elderly dependents, the tax burden on productive workers will likely increase, potentially accelerating emigration and further exacerbating population decline.
“Kishida emphasized the urgency of addressing the declining birth rate, stating that Japan is on the verge of not functioning as a society.” – Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
Interestingly, neighboring South Korea, which has faced similar demographic challenges, reported its first increase in births in nine years, with its fertility rate rising slightly from 0.72 to 0.75 in 2024. While still far below replacement level, this modest uptick contrasts sharply with Japan’s continued decline. Japan would be wise to study South Korea’s policies for potential solutions, though both nations continue to face serious demographic headwinds that threaten economic stability and could serve as a warning for Western nations pursuing similar policies.
