Miami-Dade County, a long-standing Democratic stronghold, has unexpectedly shifted to Republican dominance in early and mail-in voting trends, signaling a major political transformation in Florida.
At a Glance
- Miami-Dade County has flipped to Republican in early and mail-in voting combined
- Statewide, Republicans lead Democrats 44.20% to 35.54% in early and mail-in voting
- Republicans have over one million more registered voters than Democrats in Florida
- The shift follows Miami-Dade’s flip to Republican in the 2020 election for Gov. DeSantis and Sen. Rubio
- Florida is no longer considered a battleground state due to Republican dominance
Republican Surge in Early Voting
Recent election data reveals a significant tilt towards the Republican Party in Miami-Dade County’s early and mail-in voting trends. This shift marks a substantial change from the county’s usual Democratic alignment and reflects a broader statewide trend. Across Florida, Republicans have taken the lead with 44.20 percent in these combined voting methods, surpassing Democrats who hold 35.54 percent.
The Republican advantage is particularly pronounced in early in-person voting, where they hold a commanding 54.14 percent compared to the Democrats’ 26.99 percent. In Miami-Dade County specifically, Republicans have a 17.1 percent advantage in early in-person voting. This surge in Republican turnout has caught the attention of political analysts and party leaders alike.
BREAKING: Miami-Dade County officially flips Republican in the early and mail-in voting for the 2024 election by party
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) October 24, 2024
Democrats Maintain Edge in Mail-In Voting
While Republicans have made significant gains, Democrats still maintain a lead in mail-in voting. Statewide, Democrats account for 42.29 percent of mail-in votes compared to Republicans’ 36.35 percent. In Miami-Dade County, this translates to a 13.2 percent edge for Democrats in mail-in ballots. However, this advantage has not been sufficient to overcome the Republican surge in early in-person voting.
“At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout. These early numbers make it clear that Florida Republicans are energized to vote.” – Republican Party Chair Evan Power
The shift in voting patterns reflects a changing political landscape in Florida. Since November 2021, Republicans have steadily increased their voter registration numbers, now boasting over one million more registered voters than Democrats statewide. This trend has altered Florida’s status as a political battleground, with many observers no longer considering it a swing state in the current election cycle.
Implications for Future Elections
The Republican dominance in early and mail-in voting in Miami-Dade County aligns with the 2020 election outcomes, which saw support for Republican stalwarts like Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio. This continued trend suggests a potentially lasting shift in the political preferences of Florida voters, particularly in what was once considered a Democratic stronghold.
“We feel really energized by what work has been put on the ground to get us to this moment.” – Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried
As the election approaches, both parties are intensifying their efforts to mobilize voters. Republicans are capitalizing on their momentum, while Democrats are focusing on engaging key demographics, including Black, Hispanic, and young voters, who typically vote in smaller numbers. The outcome of this election could have far-reaching implications for Florida’s political future and its role in national elections.
