(RightWing.org) – Nate Silver is one of the nation’s most respected statisticians and pollsters. For instance, he successfully predicted the outcome of 49 of the 50 states during the 2008 presidential election. He enjoyed similar success with the 2012 and 2020 elections. Although his model failed to predict Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, Silver gave the noted billionaire better odds than most polling organizations. His latest poll predicts Trump will win the 2024 election.
Silver’s polling average shows Trump leading Joe Biden 42.7% to 40.2%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailing with only 8.8% as of July 2. Trump’s 2.5-point advantage using Silver’s model is slightly higher than the 1.6 points reported by his old polling organization, FiveThirtyEight.
However, Silver’s model considers factors not used by FiveThirtyEight. For instance, he adjusts his average based on whether polling organizations surveyed likely or registered voters. (His model gives more weight to polls of registered voters). He also considers house effects, meaning a polling company’s reputation for bias. Additionally, he tweaks his average based on whether RFK Jr. appears on a poll.
Silver noted that a recent CNN poll showed Biden “well behind” Trump, but his model hadn’t tipped in Trump’s favor yet. He attributed the lag to a recent survey from TIPP that showed Biden leading Trump. He explained that most of that survey was conducted before Biden’s botched debate performance against the former president.
Most pollsters predict that Trump will increase his lead over Biden as they conduct new surveys. A recent post-debate poll by CBS News/YouGov showed Trump leading Biden by 23 points regarding participants’ thoughts on which candidate “has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president.”
Silver penned an op-ed shortly after the debate discussing aging and cognitive decline, making a solid case for Biden to drop his bid for a second term. He noted that Biden had already relinquished a narrow polling lead against Trump before his abysmal debate performance.
Silver also pointed out that Biden is already 81 years old, and seeking another four years means he “wants to continue being president until he’s 86!” [emphasis included in original article].
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