A recent study reveals staggering projections of antibiotic-resistant infections causing millions of deaths by 2050, questioning whether the world is prepared to confront this mounting crisis.
At a Glance
- More than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years.
- The annual death toll from these infections could reach 10.13 million by 2050 if no interventions are made.
- Potential global GDP losses could amount to $3.4 trillion by 2030 due to AMR.
- The hardest hit will be the elderly and populations in low- and middle-income countries, notably sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Projected Deaths and Economic Fallout
A new study published in The Lancet projects over 39 million deaths globally in the next 25 years due to antibiotic-resistant infections. Between 2025 and 2050, an additional 169 million deaths will be indirectly associated with antibiotic resistance. By 2050, these infections could cause 10.13 million deaths annually without effective intervention, underscoring the urgent need for global action.
Beyond the human toll, the economic consequences are dire. The global GDP could suffer losses up to $3.4 trillion by 2030 due to AMR, severely impacting economies worldwide. The elderly and populations in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are expected to be the most affected due to limited healthcare access and higher infection rates.
Antibiotic resistance forecast to kill 39 million people by 2050 https://t.co/dmqUYv3PYB
— New Scientist (@newscientist) September 17, 2024
Factors Contributing to Increased Resistance
Resistance to critically important antimicrobials is on the rise, with deaths due to methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) more than doubling from 1990 to 2021. Many factors contribute to this crisis, including the overuse and misuse of antibiotics, lack of new antibiotic development, and inadequate infection control measures in healthcare settings.
“Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing.
Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” said study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, Team Leader of the AMR Research Team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, USA.
Reasons for Regional Disparities
Deaths directly attributed to AMR have surged most in western sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. These regions face higher rates of infection due to factors such as limited healthcare access, poor sanitation, and higher population densities, which facilitate the spread of resistant bacteria.
“This is really a very silent pandemic, and it’s growing. Our attention needs to be there now,” Ahmed Ogwell, vice president of global health strategy at the UN Foundation and former acting director-general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), told Euronews Health.
Steps Forward: Preventative Measures and New Strategies
To mitigate this impending crisis, the study emphasizes the need for robust infection prevention strategies, widespread vaccination, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use, and accelerating research into new antibiotics. Improving infection care and ensuring better access to existing antibiotics could prevent an estimated 92 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.
“There has been real progress in tackling AMR, particularly among young children, but our findings indicate more must be done to protect people from this growing global health threat. By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some 8 million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor.
To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics, and guidance on how to use them most effectively,” said study author Dr Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and affiliate professor at IHME.
In conclusion, the looming threat of antibiotic resistance demands immediate global action. Public health initiatives focused on education, surveillance, and stricter antibiotic regulations will be crucial in curbing this silent pandemic. The consequences of inaction are too severe to ignore, potentially leading to millions of preventable deaths and staggering economic losses.
